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Beryl is a hurricane once again, nears landfall along Matagorda County

July 7 Update 11 p.m.

Based on doppler radar estimates and reports from hurricane hunters, Beryl’s sustained winds have increased to 75 mph and is now a category one hurricane. Beryl is expected to make landfall now as a category one storm east of Matagorda Bay in Matagorda County early Monday morning.

ABC13 Weather Alert Day: Beryl is once again a hurricane, Tornado Watch issued for parts of SE Texas.

Additionally, a Tornado watch is in effect until 10 a.m. for Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, Liberty, Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties. Thunderstorms in the outer bands of Beryl could be strong enough to produce quick tornadoes as they move inland.

July 7 Update 10 p.m.

Beryl is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph but gusts have now increased to 85 mph. And in the latest form the National Hurricane Center, Beryl is now expected to make landfall as a tropical storm east of Matagorda Bay and into central Matagorda County. However, Beryl is still forecast to reach hurricane strength over Matagorda and Wharton counties when sustained winds reach 75 mph around 7 a.m. Monday morning. Then Beryl will take more of a northerly turn, which put much of Harris County and Houston at risk for seeing tropical storm to hurricane force gusts. Power outages are expected. Beryl will then weaken to a tropical storm as it passes over Southeast Texas and arrives close of Lufkin Monday evening.

Beryl is expected to make landfall near Matagorda bay early Monday as at least a category 1 hurricane with high impacts here in Southeast Texas.

Galveston Island is now under a Hurricane Warning as well.

July 7 Update 7 p.m.

Beryl is nearing hurricane strength now with winds of 70 mph and gusts of 75 mph. The central pressure has dropped slightly too with a more visible eye and eyewall now on satellite and radar imagery. Beryl is still on track to make landfall near Matagorda Bay as a category one hurricane, likely reaching that hurricane strength by 1 a.m. Monday.

July 7 Update 4 p.m.

Beryl currently remains as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. It is expected to make landfall near or just east of Matagorda Bay/Matagorda County as at least a Cat. 1 hurricane Monday morning between 2-4 am. Storm surge up to 7′ will be possible from Matagorda Bay to San Luis Pass. Up to 6′ possible in Galveston, Galveston Bay, up to High Island. Rainfall totals near or east of the path should come in around 5-10″ with isolated spots seeing closer to 15.” Luckily, Beryl looks to move quickly making its way out of SE Texas by late Monday into early Tuesday.

Beryl currently remains as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds.

July 7 Update 1 p.m.

Beryl is retaining its tropical storm strength this afternoon with winds of 65 mph, gusts up to 75 mph and a central pressure of 992 mb. Beryl is still on track to make landfall early Monday morning as a category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph.

A new additional to the weather alerts this afternoon, a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for coastal Galveston County including Galveston, Jamaica Beach and the west end of the island. Also, now all of Brazoria and Wharton County are now under a Hurricane Warning.

The first rain bands from Beryl have also started to move through Southeast Texas Sunday afternoon, the first of several expected throughout the day and into Monday. Heavy downpours, lightning, thunder and a quick tornado can’t be ruled out as these come onshore. Along the coast, water levels in Galveston Bay have already risen a foot, close to two feet near the San Luis Pass. The storm surge will continue to push into coastal communities tonight and throughout Monday. There are also signs now that the surge could reach up to 6 feet in parts of Galveston Bay and along Galveston Island.

Models honing in on Matagorda Bay area as eventual landfall destination for Beryl.

July 7 Update 10 a.m.

Two major updates as of 10 a.m., first off, Beryl is officially strengthening. While still currently a Tropical Storm, Beryl has increased to 65mph winds, and is expected to become a Cat 1 hurricane later today. The National Hurricane Center explicitly mentioned the potential for a Cat 2 storm before landfall, so we have the potential to see a stronger storm than the official forecast. The second important update is that our Tropical Storm Warning has been expanded throughout all of Southeast Texas, even our northern-most counties.

July 7 Update 7 a.m.

Beryl is going to be a high impact weather event across Southeast Texas. Currently Beryl remains at Tropical Storm strength this morning, but is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall near Matagorda Bay early Monday morning. Jackson, Matagorda, and coastal Brazoria counties are under a Hurricane Warning. Colorado, Austin, Waller, Harris, Chambers, Fort Bend, and Wharton Counties are under a Tropical Storm Warning. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches of rain will be common in the path of the storm, with isolated amounts of 15+ inches. Storm surge will reach between 4-6 feet along our local waterways, highest around Matagorda Bay.

Through Sunday morning we’re looking at a few spotty showers, but conditions will gradually deteriorate through today and late tonight as outer bands of Beryl move through. Those outer bands have the potential to put down heavy rain and occasional tornadoes. The main event begins early Monday morning, with Beryl expected to make landfall between 3-6 a.m. Monday, with damaging wind, flooding rains, dangerous storm surge along the coast, and potential tornadoes.

July 6 Update 10 p.m.

Not much has changed in tonight’s update. Beryl is still a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph and gusts of 70 mph. One update is that Beryl’s central pressure dropped from 997 to 993 mb, a small sign that the storm is organized and slowly strengthening once again over the warm Gulf waters.

There are some important updates to the weather alerts. All of Harris, Fort Bend, Waller and Austin are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. This is an expansion of the previous warned area along the coast. Tropical storm-force gusts between 45 to 55 mph are possible with some wind gusts reaching up to 80 mph at times over the next 36 hours.

July 6 Update 7 p.m.

Beryl remains at tropical storm, retaining its strength in the latest update. Beryl will continue to track northwest towards the Texas coast tonight and throughout the day Sunay. Sunday, Beryl is expected to move into a region that will have more favorable conditions for development, thus strengthening to a category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph before making landfall near Matagorda Bay early Monday morning. Monday Beryl will continue to slowly push inland, potentially swirling over Southeast Texas in the evening hours as a tropical storm. Tuesday the storm will begin to lift into the northern part of the state, eventually making it’s way into Arkansas and the Ohio River Valley midweek.

Those across Southeast Texas should anticipate tropical storm-like impacts beginning as early as Sunday afternoon with conditions greatly deteriorating Sunday night and into Monday morning. Then Monday is an ABC13 Weather Alert Day as tropical storm force winds, heavy rains and tornadoes are all possible across Southeast Texas. Coastal communities will have those threats plus the inundation of the storm surge to worry about Monday.

One change to the weather alerts from the 4 p.m. update is that a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Galveston Bay and along Chambers County.

July 6 Update 4 p.m.

In the latest update of Beryl’s track, landfall continues to be slightly shifted north along the Texas coast. Beryl is still expected to make landfall Monday morning as a category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph near Matagorda Bay. With this increasing confidence in when and where Beryl will make landfall, there have been updates to the tropical weather alerts for portions of Southeast Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for coastal Matagorda and Brazoria counties with Storm Surge Watches continuing for portions of Galveston, Harris and Chambers counties. A storm surge upwards of 6 feet is possible along this portion of the Texas coast with conditions deteriorating Sunday evening. Storm surge is expected to being late Sunday and last all day Monday.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Matagorda County. A Tropical Storm warning is now in effect for Brazoria, Colorado, Wharton, Galveston, southeastern Harris, southern Liberty and Chambers counties. Hurricane to tropical storm force winds, respectively, are expected in the area with a warning. These conditions will begin as early as Sunday evening and last through Monday afternoon.

Additionally, significant flash flooding is possible along and east of Beryl’s track. As mentioned earlier, Flood Watches have been issued for most of Southeast Texas for Sunday evening through Tuesday morning.

July 6 Update 1 p.m.

Beryl continues to track northwest across the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph and gusts up to 70 mph. Beryl’s central pressure hasn’t changed since the last update this morning. The storm is currently not in the most favorable environment to strengthen, but that is expected to change by tomorrow.

Beryl is still on track to make landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay early Monday morning as a category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph. Leading up to landfall, tropical storm to hurricane force winds will begin to pick up along the Texas coast and move inland Monday. rip currents and high tides could also begin to impact the Texas coast as early as Sunday afternoon. Storm Surge Watches continue from High Island to Brownsville. Galveston Bay could see a surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level with 3 to 5 feet closer to Matagorda Bay.

The biggest threat for most of Southeast Texas is going to be the rain. Between Sunday and Wednesday, rain totals could range between 8 to 12 inches east of I-45 with some of the heaviest rain expected across Hill Country south towards the coast. Houston could see between 8 to 10 inches of rainfall during that time. Then east of I-45 there will likely be a sharp cutoff from a 6 to 8 ich range with totals much less of that east of the cutoff line. There is also the threat of tornadoes while Beryl makes landfall.

As of 3 p.m. Saturday, A Flood Watch has been issued for much of Southeast Texas for Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. Excessive rainfall and runoff from Beryl could flood rivers, creeks, streams and flood-prone areas. 5 to 10 inches of rain, possibly more in spots, is expected to fall within the watched area.

July 6 Update 10:00 a.m.

As of 10 a.m. Tropical Storm Beryl is beginning to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Beryl currently has a pressure of 997mb with max wind speeds of 60mph. The center of the NHC forecast cone is focused in on Matagorda Bay, though it’s important to note the average margin of error from the National Hurricane Center 48 hours out is about 70 miles, so the eventual landfall location is not set in stone. The worst of the weather in Southeast Texas will be felt Monday as the storm makes landfall, and an ABC13 Weather Alert Day has been issued for Monday and Tuesday.

A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch remains in effect from High Island down to the Texas/Mexico border. Peak storm surge along our local coastlines could reach 5 feet.

Heavy rains will be an issue even for inland locations, with most picking up less than 6 inches of rain, but those in the direct path of the storm could see upwards of 8-10 inches of rain. The worst of the flooding issues and the strongest winds will likely stay west of I-45, though tropical storm force winds are possible in the city of Houston.

July 6 Update 6:00 a.m.

A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch remains in effect from High Island down to the Texas/Mexico border. The center of the NHC forecast cone is focused in on Matagorda Bay, though the east side of the cone includes parts of Galveston Island, and there are some forecast models pulling the storm east of the Matagorda Bay center-line. The worst of the weather in Southeast Texas will be felt Monday as the storm makes landfall, and an ABC13 Weather Alert Day has been issued for Monday and Tuesday.

July 5 Update 10:00 p.m.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended to San Luis Pass and the Storm Surge Watch has been extended to High Island as the forecast cone for Beryl is now centered on Matagorda Bay. We are still anticipating a hurricane landfall Monday morning with high impacts to Southeast Texas. While Beryl is a struggling tropical storm now, it is expected to re-strengthen and become a hurricane again before landfall in Texas.

July 5 Update 7:00 p.m.

Beryl has entered the Gulf of Mexico a little farther north than expected this evening. This will likely result in more adjustments to the track and where it is most likely expected to make landfall along the Texas coast. Newer computer model data coming in that has caught on to the northward shift now shows Beryl making landfall between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay Monday morning. A new forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center will be out by 10 p.m.

July 5 Update 4:00 p.m.

A Hurricane and Storm Surge Watch are now in effect along the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent, Texas near the border of Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. Up to 5 feet of storm surge is expected at this time. Landfall is expected to occur along the middle Texas coast on Monday with Beryl strengthening toward category 2 intensity. Note that the exact landfall point is still uncertain at this time, and the track could shift farther east putting more of Southeast Texas at risk of hurricane winds and storm surge flooding. Regardless, this is looking like a high impact storm for Southeast Texas, and we need to be prepared for the impacts of this hurricane to arrive as early as Sunday night and continue through Monday. Because we believe the brunt of the impacts will be felt on Monday, that is now an ABC13 Weather Alert Day.

July 5 Update 1:00 p.m.

Beryl is now a tropical storm over Mexico with 70 mph winds after making landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. It is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico later today. Landfall along the Texas coast is expected at this point to occur Monday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the future of the track and intensity. The next forecast update for the track and intensity will arrive by 4 p.m.

July 5 Update 4:00 a.m.

Hurricane Beryl is a cat 2 storm as it makes landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this morning. This will bring significant impacts to many highly populated and often-traveled locations such as Cancun and Cozumel. Beyond the Yucatan, a weakened Beryl emerge in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday, regaining strength with warm water and low wind shear. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has an eventual landfall on Monday morning anywhere from northern Mexico to Corpus Christi. Forecast models continue to favor the northern edge of the track, making the most likely landfall location somewhere from Brownsville to Corpus Christi.

Our coastal impacts will begin as early as Sunday, will elevated tides and rip currents. Tropical rains will push into Southeast Texas early next week, with many locations picking up between 3-5 inches of rain between Monday and Thursday. Our risk of seeing hurricane force winds is low, and we will continue to monitor the latest forecast modeling as the storm approaches.

July 4 Update 8:30 p.m.

The Hurricane Hunters have confirmed that Beryl is now a category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds as it makes its final approach to the Yucatan peninsula. We’ll have a new track forecast from the National Hurricane Center by 10 p.m.

July 4 Update 8 p.m.

The Hurricane Hunters have confirmed that Beryl is indeed strengthening again on its approach to the Yucatan peninsula. We’ll have a new track forecast from the National Hurricane Center by 10 p.m.

July 4 Update 4 p.m.

Satellite imagery indicates Beryl may have stopped its weakening trend and even started to regain intensity. The National Hurricane shows the cone still aimed near the Texas/Mexico border with a northward push into Texas after landfall. This track will bring a storm surge to the Texas coastline, hurricane and tropical storm force winds to a portion of the coastline, and heavy rainfall along and right of the path. An increased risk of rip currents will reach our coastline starting Sunday. We are putting you on an ABC13 Weather Watch from Monday through Thursday with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding increasing as Beryl slows down and pushes northward. Make sure you stay weather aware through the holiday weekend as we get a better handle on the details.

July 4 Update 10 a.m.

Beryl continues to slowly weaken but is still a powerful Category 3 hurricane. It should impact the Yucatan Peninsula as a category 2 hurricane late tonight into Friday. It should move into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night as a tropical storm and then should continue to move northwest towards northern Mexico/southern Texas possibly intensifying back into a hurricane. It is still unclear exactly where Beryl will go so we can’t rule out impacts here in Southeast Texas. Make sure you stay weather aware through the weekend.

July 4 Update 7 a.m.

Beryl weakened overnight after impacting Jamaica and entering an area of higher wind shear late Wednesday. Beryl is now a category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph and gusts of 150 mph. Still, Beryl is a major hurricane and has been for now 5 days in a row. The latest track has Beryl making landfall along the Yucatan early Friday morning south of Cozumel as a category 1 or 2 hurricane. Beryl will weaken more to a tropical storm as it tracks over the Yucatan Peninsula before making its way into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. From there, Beryl will be a tropical storm but could strengthen again to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall along the north Mexico or south Texas coast near Monday.

Currently landfall along the gulf coast is just south of Brownsville in northern Mexico. However, there are some signs that landfall could shift farther north into the Texas coast, which is something we’re closely watching.

Southeast Texas is not out of the woods just yet though. With the current track of the storm, Houston could be impacted by tropical downpours early next week. Coastal communities might even have higher tides too. Each of these impacts though are the bare minimum. If Bery’s track shifts farther north for a landfall along the Texas Coast, then our impacts grow too.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the tropical wave behind Beryl near the Lesser Antilles has a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 7 days as it makes it ways across the Caribbean behind Beryl.

July 3 Update 10 p.m.

It’s the storm that just won’t weaken. Beryl is still a category 4 storm. It’s heading for the Cayman Islands Thursday, and to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The latest track still has landfall near Brownsville late Sunday or Sunday night. It still could turn farther north and affect southeast Texas. Stay tuned!

July 3 Update 7 p.m.

Beryl’s sustained winds have weakened to 130 mph but it’s still a category 4 hurricane. Its center is 100 miles west of Kingston Jamaica and it’s moving west at 20 mph.

July 3 Update 6 p.m.

The northern eyewall of category 4 Hurricane Beryl is pounding Jamaica at this hour. A pocket of high wind shear west of the storm should weaken it some as it passes south of the Cayman Islands on Thursday. The storm will make it to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, most likely as a category 2 storm. Models have come into better agreement that Beryl will strike either northern Mexico or south Texas late this weekend. A turn towards southeast Texas is not likely at this time but not impossible either. Either way, a lot of Beryl’s moisture, and moisture from a tropical wave behind it will make it to the area by the middle of next week. Heavy tropical rains will be possible then.

July 3 Update 1 p.m.

The latest update from the NHC has shown a slight weakening in Beryl but it is still a strong Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. It will continue to impact Jamaica and will bring impacts to the Cayman Islands tonight. Then it looks like Beryl will move west into the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday night into Friday before emerging into the Gulf by Friday night into early Saturday. There is still a big model spread on where this will go. A lot of this will be due to land interactions and also what is happening in the upper atmosphere. Mexico and parts of the Texas coastline are in the far ranges of the cone of uncertainty.

July 3 Update 10 a.m.

Beryl shown signs of weakening this morning but still holding onto its Cat 4 intensity with 145 mph winds. The center should move near or just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 hours. Then it should move to the Yucatan Peninsula near Cat. 2 strength at the end of the week. It should emerge over the Gulf by Friday evening most likely as a tropical storm, but it could intensify back into a hurricane depending on which path it takes. There is a still a sizeable spread on where this could go once it gets into the Gulf with models going as far north as into parts of the Texas coast or as far south as the Mexico Coast. Matagorda Bay is now included within the northern side of this forecast cone. At this time, just make sure you stay aware with what’s happening this week with Beryl and we should get more clarity into its direction today as it interacts with Jamaica.

July 3 Update 7 a.m.

Hurricane Beryl is still a power, category 4 hurricane Wednesday morning with winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. There are a few important things to note in the morning update from the National Hurricane Center. To start, Beryl has not weakened that much overnight even when impacted by wind shear, a factor that typically weakens tropical systems. The other updates are with the latest track of the storm.

First, Beryl might not make a direct hit with Jamaica, though the island will still feel the brunt of hurricane-force winds today. If the storm stays south of the island, the storm might not weaken as much as initially expected. This means the storm could stay a major hurricane, either a category 3 or 4, as it racks west towards the Yucatan Peninsula this week. Then Beryl could make landfall along the Yucatan as either a category 2 or even 3 hurricane depending on how quickly it moves and if wind shear across the Caribbean will weaken the storm.

Finally, the hurricane center now has Beryl strengthening once again when it moves into the Bay of Campeche. Beryl will likely weaken while over land in the Yucatan to a tropical storm, but then could strengthen to a category one hurricane as it makes its northern turn towards the Mexican and Texas Coast this weekend. Southeast Texas specifically is still not within the cone of uncertainty, but we need to stay alert as there is growing consistency that Beryl will take that northerly jog once it’s in the Gulf and could intensify too.

July 2 Update 7 p.m.

Hurricane Beryl remains a category 4 hurricane with estimated winds of 150 mph, but the Hurricane Hunters did just sample higher winds that indicate it could still be a category 5 storm. A new track forecast and intensity estimate from the National Hurricane Center comes out at 10 p.m.

July 2 Update 4 p.m.

Hurricane Beryl remains near category 5 intensity, but wind shear is impacting the storm, which should cause the intensity to decrease some on its approach to Jamaica. That said, it is still predicted to be a major hurricane when it passes near or over Jamaica tomorrow. With the new forecast track, more of South Texas is now included in the five-day forecast cone for Sunday. We’ll have a clearer picture on the impacts to Texas once we see how the storm interacts with Jamaica tomorrow. If Beryl weakens considerably, the impacts to Texas will be lower. If Beryl does not weaken much, the impacts to Texas will likely be greater early next week. Any impacts in Southeast Texas would likely occur in the Sunday through Tuesday window.

July 2 Update 1 p.m.

Hurricane Beryl now has estimated winds of 155 mph with gusts up to 200 mph. This make Beryl a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Wind shear is starting to impact the hurricane, but it remains to be seen how much the wind speeds will drop before it reaches Jamaica. It will likely be a category 3 or 4 hurricane when it impacts Jamaica tomorrow. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

July 2 Update 10 a.m.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast is showing South Texas in Beryl’s forecast cone of uncertainty for this coming Sunday. So, the chances are going up that Texas will have some type of impact from Beryl between Sunday and Tuesday of next week, but the degree and extend of those impacts are still to be determined. We may get a clearer outlook on Texas impacts as soon as Wednesday depending on what happens as Beryl passes by or over Jamaica. There is a Hurricane Warning in effect for Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch in effect for the southern border of Haiti as well as the Cayman Islands.

July 2 Update

Hurricane Beryl remains a powerful and dangerous storm as it moves westward across the Caribbean as a category 5 storm with sustained winds of 165 mph. Southern Hispaniola and Jamaica will be the next to experience heavy rain, strong winds and life-threatening storm surge are likely. Landfall over the Yucatan peninsula is likely Thursday night with the storm emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico later Friday. It’s too soon to say whether or not Texas will be impacted by the hurricane, but a pathway toward Texas remains open at this time. If we’re to be impacted by Beryl, it would likely be in the Sunday through Tuesday window early next week.

July 1 Update 10:45 p.m.

NOAA Hurricane Hunters flew into Beryl this evening and found a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. It’s moving west-northwest at 22 mph and should make it to Jamaica on Wednesday as a major Category 3 storm.

Tropical Storm Chris moved onto land in Mexico this morning and has weakened considerably. Beryl also made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane this morning around 10:10 am in the Windward Islands bringing 150 mph sustained winds. Beryl is expected to weaken a bit as it moves northwest through the Caribbean as it encounters more wind shear. It is expected to impact Jamaica by Wednesday and the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the work week. We should know a lot more about where this system will go once we see how it interacts with Jamaica. IF it moves into the southern Gulf, it wouldn’t do so until this weekend.

July 1 Update

Hurricane Beryl re-strengthens to a category 4 hurricane after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. This still dangerous and powerful storm will bring life-threatening flooding rain along with strong, damaging winds and coastal flooding to the majority of Caribbean Islands as it tracks west-northwest this week. Beryl is forecast to lose wind intensity later in the week over the western Caribbean as it encounters higher wind shear. It could make landfall over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday. From there, still too much uncertainy as to where it will track next.

Tropical Storm Chris made landfall over eastern Mexico Monday morning. It is now a tropical depression and will continue to bring heavy rainfall inland.

A tropical wave about 1000 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands has a medium risk for development as it tracks west in the coming days. This may be a tropical depression later this week or Tropical Storm Debby.

June 30th 10 p.m. Update

Beryl continues to be a category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and peak wind gusts of 160 mph. The eye of Beryl is 10 nautical miles wide and even has mesovorticies within, both signs of a healthy and well-formed storm. Beryl will retain it’s category 4 strength as it makes landfall along the Windward Idlands Monday, leading to life-threatening flooding and potentially catastrophic wind damage. As for it’s future track, Beryl is expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica mid-week and then could weaken slightly to either a category one or two storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Another landfall near Cozumel is possible Friday. Beyond that, it’s difficult to place where this hurricane will be after Friday. the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center now includes the Bay of Campeche, but there’s still too much uncertainty with the system’s potential track as it would be in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. In other words, it’s still too early to tell if Beryl will pose a threat to the Texas coast or Houston next weekend. In the meantime, it’s best to begin thinking about an travels plans you might have around the Fourth of July and thereafter, plus what you might need to do locally in Houston if a storm was headed this way.

Behind Beryl, the other tropical wave in it’s wake still has a 70% chance of forming over the next 7 days.

Additionally, we now have Tropical Storm Chris in the Bay of Campeche. This will be another short-lived system as it’s expected to move into Mexico Monday. The main concern is the heavy rains that could lead to flooding and mudslides in Mexico. Chris poses no threat to the Texas coast of Houston.

June 30th 10 a.m. Update

Hurricane Beryl is already in the record books, reaching Cat 4 strength late Sunday morning. It becomes the first June hurricane on record to reach Cat 4 strength, a feat made possible by record warm waters. The storm will impact the Windward Islands Monday as a Cat 4 storm, and continue west through the Caribbean. By midweek the storm will be near Jamaica as a major hurricane, and most forecast models bring the storm to the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. Anyone with travel plans to the Yucatan (including Cozumel, Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, and Tulum) should monitor the weather closely. Beyond that point models are split on the eventual path, but it is possible the storm can sweep across the Yucatan and move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Any specific landfall projections beyond that point would be pure speculation, but we’ll watch it closely as models come in to better agreement.

Behind Beryl is another potential storm with a 70% chance of developing, likely to become “Chris” in the coming days.

Closer to home in the Southwest Gulf is another area of potential development with 50% development odds, though any impacts from that system will stay well south of our area.

June 29 4 p.m. Update

Beryl has strengthened to a category one hurricane Saturday afternoon with winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 992 millibars. Beryl will continue to intensify through the weekend before making landfall along the Windward islands in the eastern Caribbean Monday as a potentially major hurricane of category three strength. Destructive hurricane force winds and life-threatening flash flooding are possibility for those islands, thus Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for islands like Grenada, Barbados and St. Vincent.

From there the hurricane will continue to track west through the Caribbean and towards the Yucatan Peninsula by the end next week. From there the future path of Beryl is still uncertain. Beryl could potentially track into the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche into the first weekend of July, but it is still too early to tell if this storm will pose any threat to the Texas coast.

There are also two other areas for potential tropical development in the coming days, and one could become the next named storm Chris. Behind Beryl there is another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a 70 percent chance of forming over the next 7 days. And then the area to watch in the Bay of Campeche has a medium, 50/50 chance of becoming a named storm before the circulation would move into Mexico next week.

June 29 Update

Tropical Storm Beryl is poised to become the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season by the end of the day, and is forecast to reach Cat 3 “major” hurricane status as it enters the Caribbean early next week. Anyone with travel plans in the Caribbean should stay weather-aware through the week ahead. While models in the short term are in fairly good agreement about Beryl’s path into the Caribbean, the long-term outlook remains less certain. At this point, it is unknown if the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico or continue west into Central America.

Another tropical wave closer to home in the southwest Gulf has a 40% chance of development but will move into Mexico and will not impact Southeast Texas in any way.

June 28 10 p.m. Update

Tropical Depression Two is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical watches will more than likely be issued for the Windward Islands on Saturday.

June 28 4 p.m. Update

Tropical Depression Two has formed over the central Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will be a category 2 hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday. Anyone with plans to vacation in the Caribbean next week should pay close attention to the forecast in the days ahead. It is too soon at this time to know if it will ever impact the Gulf of Mexico, much less Texas, but if it ever were to impact Texas, it would likely be in the July 7th – July 9th window. We’ll keep you posted on its every move in the days ahead.

June 28

The tropics are looking more like late August than late June, with 3 areas of potential development we are currently monitoring. The greatest risk of development comes from Tropical Wave 95-L, which is in the open Atlantic and now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. It is likely to become “Beryl” over the next few days, and could end up being our first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season as it moves in to the Caribbean next week. Beyond that, models are showing a wide spread on where the storm could eventually head.

Close behind 95-L is another tropical wave following in its wake, though the odds for development on that system are at just 20%.

Lastly, closest to home is 94-L, which will be moving into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. That system will gradually turn into Mexico and will not directly impact Southeast Texas.

June 27 Afternoon Update

Tropical Wave 95-L in the open Atlantic is becoming more organized today. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next two days and an 80% chance of doing the same over the next week. Hurricane Hunters are now scheduled to investigate it starting on Sunday. It poses no immediate threat to Texas at this time, but it bears watching for now.

June 27 Update

The NHC has increased development odds for a system in the open Atlantic to 70%. It will likely become our next named storm, and could become the first hurricane of the 2024 hurricane season. This potential storm is too far away to have any real specifics on its eventual location, so for now it’s just a storm that we’ll be watching closely.

Another area of potential development in the southern Gulf now has a 30% chance of development, but the rain and general impact of that storm will stay well south of the Houston area in Central America.

June 26 Afternoon Update

The National Hurricane Center now says the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has a 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days. The environment it will pass through in the days ahead will allow the wave to organize more, and many of our computer models are now indicating this system could be come the first hurricane of the season as it nears the Caribbean Sea.

June 26 Update

There continue to be two waves of potential tropical development in the Atlantic. One is in the southern Caribbean and has a 20% chance of formation over the next seven days. That’s when this wave is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. There is another wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa that currently in the eastern Atlantic that has a 30% chance of developing over the next seven days. The main story in the tropics is Saharan Dust, where two plumes could make it to the Texas Coast and Gulf of Mexico this weekend and next week. Saharan Dust can help limit tropical storms of hurricanes from forming.

June 25 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center is now giving a new tropical wave near the coast of Africa a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. It is of no immediate concern to Texas at this time, and we’ve got plenty of time to watch it over the next two weeks.

June 25

We are watching two features in the tropics. First, is a Saharan dust cloud that brings us a hazy gray sky by the weekend, and second is a tropical wave on the southern edge of that dust cloud that could develop once it gets into the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds during the next 7 days is 20%.

June 24 1 p.m. Update

While tropical development will be suppressed by a large cloud of Saharan dust, there is still a small chance a tropical wave could develop into something more on the fringes of that dust cloud. The National Hurricane Center is now giving a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea a low chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm as it crosses the Western Caribbean and/or Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

June 24

The tropical low we’ve been monitoring over northeast Mexico has pushed inland and will remain a heavy rainmaker over the next day or two. Tropical development is not expected elsewhere in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific over the next week. However, a large dust cloud over the Caribbean will make its way into the Gulf and could move into southeast Texas over the weekend. Although concentrations of the dust are not particularly heavy at this time, we’ll need to monitor any air quality issues it could cause.

You may notice the sky appear “milkier” or “hazy gray” which could make sunrises and sunsets more colorful. Saharan dust will also limit thunderstorm development.

June 23

Our potential tropical system in the western Gulf is down to a 40% chance of development over the next 2 days, and is quickly running out of time to get it’s act together over water before it moves into Mexico and dissipates. Regardless of whether this becomes a named system or not, the impact to us in Southeast Texas is slim-to-none, as this low pressure has a much tighter wind field that doesn’t extend as far in to Texas as Alberto did.

June 22

We’re still seeing some impacts from Alberto with elevated coastal flooding and a high rip current risk at our local beaches.

We are also monitoring another low in the southern Gulf that looks to follow in Albert’s footsteps. While this system is similar to Alberto in many ways, including an eventual path into Mexico, it is a much smaller system, so the impacts here in Southeast Texas will be negligible.

June 21

We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather that will move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week. Another tropical low could spin up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 60% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas.

There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we’re monitoring for development too. It has a 50% chance of development this weekend.

June 20

Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico Thursday morning and is now a tropical depression over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Alberto’s winds, rains and enhanced tides extend well north of the center and will continue to have impacts on southeast Texas coastal communities until Thursday evening.

We will also be watching the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week as another tropical low spins up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas. There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we’re monitoring for development too.

June 19 10 a.m.

Potential Storm One is now classified as Tropical Storm Alberto. The NHC has been able to find a well defined center of circulation which is why it is now getting classified as a tropical storm. It is expected to jog west making landfall in Mexico late tonight into Thursday morning as a tropical storm. The naming of this storm does not change the impacts we are feeling here in Southeast Texas. We are still going to be looking at rainbands moving through parts of SE Texas today and coastal flooding caused by the large wind field generated by Alberto.

This weekend we’ll also be watching as another tropical low could try to spin up again over the Bay of Campeche. Right now, it looks like that disturbance would mainly stay in the southern Gulf but it could send moisture our way early next week resulting in a chance for rain for SE Texas.

June 19 7 a.m.

Potential Storm One still has not organized enough to be designated a tropical storm as it is crossing the Bay of Campeche, and time is running out for it to do so before making a landfall along the northeast coast of Mexico late Wednesday night. Regardless of whether it becomes Alberto or not, the storm will bring wind and heavy rain in northeastern Mexico and up into Texas.

We are also monitoring the same area again for this weekend, as the NHC has designated a low chance for a second system to try to organize in that area.

There is also still a low chance for development north of the Bahamas over the next few days, with the risk extending to the Southeast U.S. coast.

June 18

A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has been designated as Potential Storm One. It is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Alberto by Wednesday. It is currently heading north but should make a westerly turn toward Mexico on Wednesday. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm Thursday morning. This is a very large system so we could potentially see tropical storm force winds as far north as Port O’ Connor. Our main impact here in Southeast Texas will be from the moisture getting pushed this way around this system, leading to rounds of heavy rainfall. Street flooding and coastal tide flooding are the biggest concerns.

June 17 4 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing forecasts for Potential Storm One in the southwest Gulf. It is predicted to become Tropical Storm Alberto. This is an unusually large tropical circulation, so even with the center going into Mexico, the Tropical Storm Watch extends all the way north to the waters offshore from Galveston Island. Torrential tropical downpours are likely to move into Southeast Texas starting Tuesday night and continue through most of Wednesday. Significant street flooding and moderate coastal flooding are likely. A Flood Watch starts at 7 p.m. Tuesday and continues to 1 a.m. Wednesday. ABC13 Weather Alert Days continue for Tuesday and Wednesday.

June 17

All attention is focused on the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico where there is a 70 percent chance for tropical development. If this system strengthens to a Tropical Storm, it will be named Alberto. Regardless of development, an influx of deep tropical moisture from this system will impact parts of Texas and Louisiana starting Monday through Wednesday. The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.

June 16 7 p.m. Update

A large area of showers and storms currently over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche where conditions are favorable for tropical development. That being said, there is now a 50 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours and 70 percent chance for a tropical depression to form in the next 7 days. This is the tropical system that will send torrential tropical rains to Southeast Texas beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday are ABC13 Weather Alert Days now with the potential for street and urban flooding, potentially flash flooding too. This is as that swirling area of thunderstorms could organize and become Alberto, the first named storm of the season, this week in the Gulf. Tonight NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters have release plans to fly to the Bay of Campeche this week to investigate the potential tropical system.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there is still a 30 percent chance for development off the east coast of Florida near the Bahamas. A tropical wave will bring heavy rains to Florida and potentially New Orleans later this week as it moves from east to west.

June 16

Development chances for our tropical low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are currently at 60%. Regardless of whether this becomes a named storm or not, our impacts will largely be the same. Our concern in Southeast Texas comes from deep tropical moisture streaming in Monday through Thursday, increasing the potential for flooding, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.

June 15 7 p.m. Update

The National Hurricane Center increased odds for development n the Bay of Campeche to 60% tonight. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two and could make a slow trek north towards Texas. While any kind of named development or landfall is still unclear, those kinds of impacts are not expected at this point for Southeast Texas. Regardless, potentially three days of rounds of tropical rains is expected Monday through Wednesday of next week. Street and low-lying area flooding is possible with these showers across the region. For the coastline, coastal flooding as well as high tides and strong rip currents are expected all of next week as this system spins to the south.

Additionally, there is a new area of potential development off the east coast of Florida and over the Bahamas. There’s a 20 percent chance for development there. Regardless, this tropical wave could send more heavy rains to Florida, a state that already got walloped by heavy rains last week.

June 15

The odds of development on a potential storm in the Southern Gulf of Mexico remain at 50%, but regardless of any development we can expect impacts here in Southeast Texas. Heavy rains capable of street flooding, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are possible Monday through Thursday. While the likely outcome is that the center of circulation moves west into Mexico, the surge of deeper tropical moisture could bring 3-6 inches of rain or more to parts of southeast Texas. We have Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as ABC13 Weather Watch days.

June 14 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 50% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding still look likely along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, uncertainty remains on the exact impacts for Texas. Our most likely scenario remains that the low slides west into Mexico, keeping the significant flooding rains over Mexico and South Texas. If the low forms farther north than we are expecting, then a pathway toward South Texas is possible, which would increase our rain chances and amounts. We are keeping you on “Weather Watch” for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.

June 14

We are monitoring an area of disturbed weather for potential tropical development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico over the Bay of Campeche for early next week. The National Hurricane Center has given this area a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. While the core of the system will likely drift west into Mexico, tropical moisture from that system is expected to move into Texas after Father’s Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and street flooding. There will also be a steady current of strong southeasterly winds that will likely lead to dangerous rip currents, high seas, and minor coastal flooding. We’ve now got you on “Weather Watch” Monday through Wednesday when we expect the majority of our local impacts from this tropical weather system.

June 13 Evening Update

The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 40% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. Interestingly, an AI version of one of our main tropical computer models is trending toward a track into South Texas. Watch this evening’s tropical update video for a deeper discussion on that development. While we await more certainty, we’ve put you on “Weather Watch” for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.

June 13

Tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico has increased to 40% over the next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12 Evening Update

The odds of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico have increased to 30% over the next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.

June 12

Monitoring two areas of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds remain low for both. A broad area of low pressure near the Gulf coast of Florida is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This is system is expected to move off the Southeast coast later this week.

There is also an area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that needs to be watched for potential development. Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father’s Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and gusty winds early next week.

June 11

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to move northeast toward Florida during the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week. Slow development is possible over the next 7 days, but the probability remains low at 20%. Regardless of development heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days.

We are also monitoring the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days as it is possible a tropical low may try to spin up and that tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father’s Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall.

June 10

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins over the next week. In the next 6-12 days we’ll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it’s just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20th.

June 9

No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days. We are keeping on our eyes on the potential for some broad low pressure to develop late next week in the gulf, which will spread deeper tropical moisture into Florida, but shouldn’t impact our weather over the next week. Beyond that we’ll monitor to see if any of that deeper tropical moisture makes it here into Southeast Texas as we move into the week after Father’s Day.

June 8

There remains no immediate threat of any tropical troubles, with no development expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. In the next 8-14 days we’ll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it’s just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on.

June 7

In the short term (through this weekend and into next week), there are no tropical systems with no development expected.

In the longer-term (mid-to-late June) we are keeping an eye on the southern Gulf and western Caribbean for potential development.

June 6

The tropics remain quiet for now and tropical development is not expected through the weekend.

The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted an area over the western Caribbean, or southeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical development between June 12-15. Tropical development will be possible in this area due to low wind shear and record warm waters over the Caribbean and Gulf. We’ll be watching it closely.

June 5

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet and no tropical formation is expected over the next 7 days.

June 4

No tropical development expected over the next 7 days as another dust cloud moves off the coast of Africa.

June 3

There are no tropical threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days.

In the eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant tropical development, and the system is expected to weaken during the next day or so.

June 2

Hurricane season is starting off on a quiet note. No development is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. With record warm waters and low wind-shear, it won’t stay quiet for long.

June 1

June 1st marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. There are no major threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. Widespread dust moving off the coast of Africa will also limit tropical development.

2024 Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its highest-on record hurricane forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. But when it comes to life along the Texas Gulf Coast, ABC13 meteorologists explain exactly what Houston-area residents need to know to plan ahead, and protect their families.

All categories of storms are expected to exceed the typical number seen every year, National Weather Service forecasters announced Thursday in a news conference for the 2024 hurricane outlook.

NOAA scientists predict between 17 and 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14; between eight and 13 hurricanes, compared to an average of seven; and between four and seven major hurricanes, compared to an average of three.

RADAR MAPS

Southeast Texas

Houston

Harris County

Galveston County

Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties

Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties

Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app.

Galveston Island

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